Super El Niño 2026: What It Could Mean for Southern California Sportfishing This Season & Beyond 🎣
🔥Hey Friedman Adventures family and all my fellow SoCal anglers,
There’s been a lot of buzz in the news lately about this year’s El Niño shaping up to be a strong one — possibly even a “super” El Niño that lasts longer than many expected, potentially into next spring. I wanted to break it down in plain talk: what the forecasts are saying, how it affects our ocean, and most importantly, what kind of fishing it could bring us right here in Southern California and down in Baja.
What’s Going On with This El Niño?
Recent forecasts from NOAA and international models show El Niño conditions are already developing, with a strong chance it strengthens to strong or very strong levels this fall and winter. Some model runs are even trending toward record-breaking territory. The key thing for us is warmer-than-average ocean temperatures spreading into our waters. These events can last 12–18 months or more in big years, so the effects might stretch well into 2027. Warmer water changes where baitfish go and which gamefish follow them north.
The Exciting Part: Fish That Could Show Up or Stack Up
History shows that strong El Niños often bring tropical and subtropical visitors closer to home. Here’s what many of us are watching for:
• Dorado (Mahi-Mahi): These are the stars of warm-water years. Expect them earlier in the season and in bigger numbers. In past strong events, we’ve seen dorado boils and fish showing up way north of their normal range — sometimes even in local kelp or on 1/2-day runs. This could be one of those years where locals get shots at dorado without a long run south.
• Yellowfin Tuna: Normally a bit further south, but warmer water pulls them our way. Early and consistent action has happened in past big El Niños. Local boats out of San Diego could see some great days.
• Wahoo: In big El Niño years, wahoo have shown up surprisingly close — even around the Coronado Islands or further north than usual. Not every year, but when it happens, it’s electric.
• Yellowtail: Our favorite! Yellowtail love warm water and often stack up nicely when conditions line up. Many strong El Niño periods have delivered solid yellowtail action on iron, live bait, or yo-yo — both on local boats and in Baja. This could be a banner stretch for them.
• Bluefin Tuna & Other Pelagics: Past events brought increased numbers and sometimes bigger bluefin that got the charter fleet fired up. We could also see more skipjack or even the occasional marlin or other tropical visitors making cameos.
For surf fishing at spots like Sunset Beach, Anderson Street, or along the Orange County coast: Warmer water and shifting bait (anchovies and squid can move) might change the game for halibut, spotfin croaker, corbina, and guitarfish. It won’t be the same every day, but there could be some pleasant surprises mixed in with the usual suspects. Keep an eye on those high tides and water temps.
Down in Baja (Ensenada, Bahía de los Ángeles, etc.): The same warm-water influence often supercharges yellowtail and white seabass action or brings even more variety. Trips with captains like Yhara or Joel could see some memorable days.
A Balanced View — Not All Perfect
Strong El Niños aren’t just “more fish everywhere.” Baitfish can shift north, which moves the gamefish with them. Reduced upwelling means less nutrients in some areas, and we sometimes see impacts on kelp or certain local species. More storms and rougher weather are also possible, especially this winter — so always check forecasts, pick good weather windows, and put safety first on the boat or beach.
That said, for sportfishing excitement and variety, these years often deliver some of the most memorable action we’ve seen.
What This Means for Us
This setup could give us:
• More variety and shots at “southern” species without traveling as far.
• Potentially extended seasons if the warm water lingers into spring 2027.
• Great reasons to get the family out — whether it’s a surf festival, a local half-day, or a longer Baja run.
I’m pumped about the possibilities. More fish to chase, more stories to tell, and more opportunities to build that Friedman Adventures family out on the water or at the beach.
I’ll be keeping a close eye on this and bringing you updates, live streams, and recaps as things develop — just like we do with our surf festivals and boat trips.
What do you think, family? Are you hoping for some early dorado action, or are you most excited about yellowtail stacking up? Drop your thoughts in the comments or come say hi at the next event.
Tight lines, stay safe, and let’s make the most of whatever Mother Nature throws our way. God bless, and I’ll see you on the water or at the beach!
— Phil Friedman
Friedman Adventures
Hashtags for sharing: #ElNinoFishing #SoCalSportfishing #DoradoSeason #YellowtailFishing #FriedmanAdventures #SouthernCaliforniaFishing #BajaFishing #TouchGrass