June 25, 2026

The Great Transition: Bluefin to Tropical Species in the 2026 El Niño Season

For the past month, bluefin tuna anglers in Southern California and Northern Baja California have faced tough conditions. A strong El Niño is now developing, pushing warmer waters into our region. These warmer temperatures—sometimes layered deeper in the water column—have already begun shifting fish distributions. Bluefin that normally concentrate off Baja and around San Clemente Island, Tanner Bank, and Cortez Bank appear to be moving north, with recent limit-style fishing reported as far as San Francisco. While no one can predict the exact path, the pattern suggests we are entering a period of transition.

As bluefin opportunities become less reliable close to home, attention is turning south. The same warm El Niño waters that are displacing bluefin are expected to carry tropical and subtropical species northward. Dorado (mahi-mahi), yellowfin tuna, yellowtail on floating kelp, and—if we’re lucky—wahoo and other exotics could soon arrive in greater numbers. This is the classic El Niño signature: a northward surge of warm-water pelagics that can create exceptional fishing when conditions align.

Recent reports from the fleet already show the shift beginning. On June 25, Captain Max Neue aboard the Pacific Voyager out of Seaforth Sportfishing in San Diego found strong yellowtail action 50–70 miles south of Point Loma. Working kelp patties in water temperatures reaching 68.5°F, his crew finished the day with 53 quality gray yellowtail in the 12–20 pound class. Further south, Jeff Lingle, who runs a private yacht and frequently shares detailed reports with the Friedman Adventures community, fished between 125 and 155 miles south of Point Loma. He recorded surface temperatures of 68–70°F+ and found yellowtail on nearly every piece of kelp or concentrated bait over a 30-mile stretch. The fish appeared to be moving northward. Lingle plans to continue working south and will update the community with his findings.

Even more encouraging are the early signs of true tropical visitors. Single Dorado have been taken near San Clemente Island, including one by the Amigo from 22nd Street Landing and singles by the Pride and Ghost. In a normal June, Dorado this far north are rare. Their presence, along with scattered yellowfin tuna reports, suggests the leading edge of the warm-water influx is already here. Long-range boats working farther south are also finding fish, reinforcing the idea that these species are following the El Niño currents.

History offers reason for optimism. During the warm-water period of 2022, large numbers of Dorado moved all the way to Catalina Island, delivering weeks of outstanding fishing for local anglers. A similar “boomer” El Niño event in 2026 could bring comparable—or even better—action if the warm currents continue pushing tropical life into our waters. Yellowtail on kelp patties, schools of yellowfin, and the occasional wahoo or other exotic are realistic possibilities in the weeks and months ahead.

We are in the middle of a transition. Bluefin numbers near home may remain spotty for a while, but the warm water that is complicating one fishery is setting the stage for another. The early reports from Captain Max Neue and Jeff Lingle, combined with the unusual Dorado sightings, are the first encouraging signals that the shift is underway.

For the latest boat counts, landing reports, captain updates, and real-time fishing intel, Friedman Adventures remains your best resource. You can also share your own photos and stories in the Ultimate Fishing Club on Friedman Adventures. Stay tuned, keep your lines ready, and let’s hope this El Niño delivers the kind of tropical action Southern California anglers dream about.